WaterScarcity
Water Scarcity in Morocco
A Multivariate Analysis of Climatic, Agricultural, and Socioeconomic Drivers
Morocco's Water Trajectory
Morocco's renewable freshwater per capita fell from roughly 2,560 m³ per year in 1960 to about 620 m³ in 2020, well inside the United Nations' absolute water-scarcity threshold. Internal renewable water resources stood at 777 m³ per capita in 2022, and the national water-stress index reached 50.75% that year.
2,560 → 620 m³
Renewable freshwater per capita, 1960 → 2020. Roughly a three-quarters decline.
50.75%
National water-stress index (2022). Withdrawals as a share of renewable resources.
≈88% Agriculture
Agriculture absorbs ≈88% of allocation, vs ≈11% drinking water and ≈1% industry.
Six Results
1 · Per-capita decline
Renewable water per capita fell by roughly three-quarters between 1960 and 2020.
2 · Agricultural dominance
Agriculture absorbs ≈88% of total water allocation.
3 · Withdrawals vs. yield
Withdrawals fell 2000–2010 and stabilized through 2022, while cereal yield rose.
4 · OLS with multicollinearity
R² = 0.812 (n = 16) but κ(X) ≈ 78,500 signals severe multicollinearity.
5 · Inseparable drivers
Irrigated land and population growth are strongly inversely correlated (r = −0.89).
6 · Wet year ≠ reversal
The 2025–2026 rebound is a storage buffer, not a reversal of the long-run decline.
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